We propose TPP-SD, a novel approach that accelerates Transformer temporal point process (TPP) sampling by adapting speculative decoding (SD) techniques from language models. By identifying the structural similarities between thinning algorithms for TPPs and speculative decoding for language models, we develop an efficient sampling framework that leverages a smaller draft model to generate multiple candidate events, which are then verified by the larger target model in parallel. TPP-SD maintains the same output distribution as autoregressive sampling while achieving significant acceleration. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our approach produces samples from identical distributions as standard methods, but with 2-6 speedup. Our ablation studies analyze the impact of hyperparameters such as draft length and draft model size on sampling efficiency.

Event sequences appear widely in domains such as medicine, finance, and remote sensing, yet modeling them is challenging due to their heterogeneity: sequences often contain multiple event types with diverse structures--for example, electronic health records that mix discrete events like medical procedures with continuous lab measurements. Existing approaches either tokenize all entries, violating natural inductive biases, or ignore parts of the data to enforce a consistent structure. In this work, we propose a simple yet powerful Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) framework for modeling event sequences with flexible structure, using a single unified model. Our approach employs a single autoregressive transformer with discrete and continuous prediction heads, capable of modeling variable-length, mixed-type event sequences. The continuous head leverages an expressive normalizing flow to model continuous event attributes, avoiding the numerical integration required for inter-event times in most competing methods.

Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) has been well studied to model the event distribution in marked event streams, which can be used to predict the mark and arrival time of the next event. However, existing studies overlook that the distribution of event marks is highly imbalanced in many real-world applications, with some marks being frequent but others rare. The imbalance poses a significant challenge to the performance of the next event prediction, especially for events of rare marks. To address this issue, we propose a thresholding method, which learns thresholds to tune the mark probability normalized by the mark's prior probability to optimize mark prediction, rather than predicting the mark directly based on the mark probability as in existing studies. In conjunction with this method, we predict the mark first and then the time. In particular, we develop a novel neural MTPP model to support effective time sampling and estimation of mark probability without computationally expensive numerical improper integration. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our solution against various baselines for the next event mark and time prediction.

We introduce DanmakuTPPBench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to advance multi-modal Temporal Point Process (TPP) modeling in the era of Large Language Models (LLMs). While TPPs have been widely studied for modeling temporal event sequences, existing datasets are predominantly unimodal, hindering progress in models that require joint reasoning over temporal, textual, and visual information. To address this gap, DanmakuTPPBench comprises two complementary components: (1) DanmakuTPP-Events, a novel dataset derived from the Bilibili video platform, where user-generated bullet comments (Danmaku) naturally form multi-modal events annotated with precise timestamps, rich textual content, and corresponding video frames; (2) DanmakuTPP-QA, a challenging question-answering dataset constructed via a novel multi-agent pipeline powered by state-of-the-art LLMs and multi-modal LLMs (MLLMs), targeting complex temporal-textual-visual reasoning. We conduct extensive evaluations using both classical TPP models and recent MLLMs, revealing significant performance gaps and limitations in current methods' ability to model multi-modal event dynamics. Our benchmark establishes strong baselines and calls for further integration of TPP modeling into the multi-modal language modeling landscape.

Agentic text-simulation systems write in sequence, with each item becoming possible context for later steps. That makes uncertainty path-dependent: an early ambiguity can affect later outputs. This paper studies this problem with HawkesLLM, a framework that separates temporal influence modeling from text generation. We represent the cascade as a network whose nodes are text-generating agents. A multivariate Hawkes process models how these nodes activate over time and which earlier node outputs should influence later prompts. A language model then writes each new event from the compact memory selected by this temporal model. We evaluate the framework on a held-out Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) news-cascade case study. The diagnostics track semantic alignment with local held-out references and separate local drift from global drift. In this setting, HawkesLLM improves late-stage semantic alignment under a compact prompt-memory budget.

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) have emerged as a kernelized alternative to vanilla independent sampling for generating efficient minibatches, coresets and other parsimonious representations of large-scale datasets. While theoretical foundations and promising empirical performance have been demonstrated, there are two challenges for current proposals for DPP-based coresets or minibatches. The first is the need for families of DPPs with certain key variance reduction properties, usually constructed in a continuous setting, of which there are few known examples. The second is the need for an ad-hoc construction of a discrete DPP defined on a given dataset, that inherits such variance reduction. In this work, we contribute to the programme of establishing DPPs as a subsampling toolbox for ML by advancing on these two fronts. First, we propose new DPPs on the Euclidean space based on wavelets, with provably better accuracy guarantees than the best known rates. Second, we introduce a general method to convert such continuous DPPs, which are more amenable to proving analytical statements, into discrete kernels, which are pertinent for subsampling tasks such as minibatch and coreset constructions. This conversion mechanism simultaneously preserves the desired variance decay and reveals a low-rank decomposition of the discrete kernel, which makes sampling the corresponding DPP computationally inexpensive. En route, we enlarge the class of ML tasks amenable to improvements via DPP-based minibatches and coresets to include objective functions with arbitrarily low regularity, and rate guarantees that explicitly adapt to this regularity.

Dynamics of interacting systems in engineering, society, and nature often evolve over latent networks that govern which entities can interact. We study the problem of inferring these networks from event-based observations, which arise naturally in finance, seismology, and neuroscience. While there is substantial algorithmic work addressing this important problem, theoretical results are scarce. In this paper we ask the following fundamental question: what is the minimum time that one must observe the dynamics in order to exactly recover the underlying network, as a function of the number $d$ of interacting entities? For a class of stationary Hawkes processes with sparse, weak interactions, we prove that an observation time of order $\log d$ is sufficient and necessary. For the upper bound we construct a two-stage estimator that uses clipped and binned event data for screening, followed by a least-squares refinement, and apply concentration bounds derived from the Poisson cluster representation. For the lower bound we combine Fano's inequality with Jacod's Girsanov formula for point processes on a suitable subclass of networks.

Many applications involve multi-type event data. Understanding the complex influences of the events on each other is critical to discover useful knowledge and to predict future events and their types. Existing methods either ignore or partially account for these influences. Recent works use recurrent neural networks to model the event rate. While being highly expressive, they couple all the temporal dependencies in a black-box and can hardly extract meaningful knowledge. More important, most methods assume an exponential time decay of the influence strength, which is over-simplified and can miss many important strength varying patterns.

Recent years have witnessed an increasing use of coordinated accounts on social media, operated by misinformation campaigns to influence public opinion and manipulate social outcomes. Consequently, there is an urgent need to develop an effective methodology for coordinated group detection to combat the misinformation on social media. However, the sparsity of account activities on social media limits the performance of existing deep learning based coordination detectors as they can not exploit useful prior knowledge. Instead, the detectors incorporated with prior knowledge suffer from limited expressive power and poor performance. Therefore, in this paper we propose a coordination detection framework incorporating neural temporal point process with prior knowledge such as temporal logic or pre-defined filtering functions. Specifically, when modeling the observed data from social media with neural temporal point process, we jointly learn a Gibbs distribution of group assignment based on how consistent an assignment is to (1) the account embedding space and (2) the prior knowledge.