In this paper, we introduce a set of spatial-temporal logic rules as knowledge to explain human actions.

To design an efficient intervention, decision-makers need not only to estimate the total effect of the intervention, but also understand the underlying causal mechanisms driving this effect.

TPP models in density estimation and strongly outperforms them in forecasting.

Learning continuous-time point processes is essential to many discrete event forecasting tasks.

However, the most common algorithm used for this problem in practical applications is a natural greedy algorithm.

Point processes are widely used statistical tools for modeling event occurrence patterns within continuous spatio-temporal domains.

Gaussian processes are the leading class of distributions on random functions, but they suffer from well known issues including difficulty scaling and inflexibility with respect to certain shape constraints (such as nonnegativity). Here we propose Deep Random Splines, a flexible class of random functions obtained by transforming Gaussian noise through a deep neural network whose output are the parameters of a spline. Unlike Gaussian processes, Deep Random Splines allow us to readily enforce shape constraints while inheriting the richness and tractability of deep generative models. We also present an observational model for point process data which uses Deep Random Splines to model the intensity function of each point process and apply it to neural population data to obtain a low-dimensional representation of spiking activity. Inference is performed via a variational autoencoder that uses a novel recurrent encoder architecture that can handle multiple point processes as input. We use a newly collected dataset where a primate completes a pedaling task, and observe better dimensionality reduction with our model than with competing alternatives.

A fundamental goal of systems neuroscience is to understand how neural activity gives rise to natural behavior. In order to achieve this goal, we must first build comprehensive models that offer quantitative descriptions of behavior. We develop a new class of probabilistic models to tackle this challenge in the study of larval zebrafish, an important model organism for neuroscience. Larval zebrafish locomote via sequences of punctate swim bouts--brief flicks of the tail--which are naturally modeled as a marked point process. However, these sequences of swim bouts belie a set of discrete and continuous internal states, latent variables that are not captured by standard point process models. We incorporate these variables as latent marks of a point process and explore various models for their dynamics. To infer the latent variables and fit the parameters of this model, we develop an amortized variational inference algorithm that targets the collapsed posterior distribution, analytically marginalizing out the discrete latent variables. With a dataset of over 120,000 swim bouts, we show that our models reveal interpretable discrete classes of swim bouts and continuous internal states like hunger that modulate their dynamics. These models are a major step toward understanding the natural behavioral program of the larval zebrafish and, ultimately, its neural underpinnings.

This paper discusses one of the most fundamental issues about point processes that what is the best sampling method for point processes. We propose \textit{thinning} as a downsampling method for accelerating the learning of point processes. We find that the thinning operation preserves the structure of intensity, and is able to estimate parameters with less time and without much loss of accuracy. Theoretical results including intensity, parameter and gradient estimation on a thinned history are presented for point processes with decouplable intensities. A stochastic optimization algorithm based on the thinned gradient is proposed.